It is now inarguable that the Conservatives have failed in their handling of Brexit. Floundering and fracturing, they have spawned a horrid hate-baby with Nigel Farage in the shape of the Brexit Party, that has torn the hearts of back-benchers, party loyalists and their 'average' (i.e. misinformed and paranoid) voter. The very existence of the Tory party is now in doubt.
Today's desperation vote on a withdrawal deal - substantially the same deal already rejected three or four times by Parliament - is sure to fail. It is a zombie bill, killed repeatedly only to rise again. However, as a political move I understand the thinking: the vote will crystalise the stance of the parties regarding Brexit. If nothing else, it should show voters that the Tories support Brexit and Labour oppose it - broadly speaking.
The theory being, if I have read this right, that they might persuade their base to stick with them by showing they are fighting to enact Brexit - broadly speaking.
'Broadly speaking' because there are Tories who will vote against it because it is 'BrINO' (Brexit In Name Only - yes, it is clumsy and not really an acronym) and others who will vote against it because it goes too far in severing our ties with the continent and hobbling our economy for decades.
Simply put, not enough of Parliament can, in good conscience, support it.
The majority of Members of Parliament are, regardless of political persuasion, patriotic. They will not vote for a policy they know will damage the country irrevocably.
When Nigel Farage gets on his hind legs and talks about how everybody in power - Parliament, the Electoral Commission, the Civil Service, the News Media, 'Metropolitan Elites' - are ALL Remainers, what he wants you to hear is that there is a ruling class that will simply ignore the wishes of the people for their own interests. I think there is a kernel of truth to that - but only inasmuch as the majority of people with any knowledge of the matter know that Brexit will damage the country in a way that we will not recover from for decades.
The Farage image mirage is of victimhood. It gives rise to resentment against 'elites' among his supporters, along with anger at 'being ignored'.
It is the self-same anger of a five-year-old who no-one listens to - because the five-year-old is totally ignorant of the subject that the adults are talking about, and totally ignorant of where the discussion amongst the adults has got to. The five-year-old just wants to yell their ignorant opinion and for it to be treated as if it has as much value as an expert's, the same value as someone with an intricate understanding earned through years of study and work.
Hearing Farage speak about the EU is like going to a seminar on how the microchip was used in the Apollo missions to the moon, but finding that the speaker is a conspiracy theorist who denies that there were any Moon Landings. The complexity of the subject - the microchip! - is beyond him, so he denies the very facts surrounding the subject.
He denies the democracy within the EU that is proven by the elections we are having tomorrow. He denies the opinions of economists who, in their droves, have warned of the catastrophe that Brexit threatens; he denies that his own words from the 2016 campaign should be taken literally - his own words about how easy the negotiations will be, about how the EU would beg for a deal from us, about the £350 Million a week we would suddenly be able to spend on the NHS because of Brexit, and on and on and on. He simply denies and deflects at every level.
The Vote Leave campaign is being investigated for election fraud currently and Nigel Farage is squealing like a stuck pig at the prospect that his lies, his criminal frauds, will come back to bite him and even put him in jail.
The way that the Tory Party dies is if they decide to learn nothing from the Republicans in the USA, who have latched their wagon to the Trump train that is in the middle of a campaign of blatant obstruction of justice that is sure to end in impeachment and infamy. The Conservative Party will die if they hold Nigel Farage, and his grip over their core supporters, closer.
In the end, the Tory Party has to stand for the best interests of the country and, whether they see that as inside or outside of the EU, makes no difference - they cannot embrace a Know-Nothing Conspiracy theorist who is only master of paranoia, resentment and victimhood. That would be like putting the guy who says the moon landings were faked in charge of NASA.
Brexit, the No Deal kind wished for by Nigel Farage, where we as a country hold hands and jump out of the EU with no clue as to where we might land, will be like a nuclear bomb hitting our economy. Everyone not already safely ensconced in a job will become utterly desperate as no businesses will be hiring. Many businesses that will survive will do so by massive lay-offs. The government will be called on to save steel, save manufacturing, save farming, save aviation and onward, in a sequence of fire-fighting corporate welfare that will make 2008 look like the Gilded Age.
If it is the Conservative Party that brings this about, they will never be forgiven. That is what will happen if they dump Theresa May, elect Boris Johnson and push through a catastrophic No Deal withdrawal, hand-in-hand with Nigel Farage.
They must stand firm by what they know to be true against what they think might win votes at the next election.
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